The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has shared its first long-range forecast for the 2025 southwest monsoon—and the news is encouraging for India’s farming community. According to the IMD, the country is expected to receive above-normal rainfall this year, with rainfall likely to be around 105% of the Long Period Average (LPA). The LPA of the season’s rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1971–2020 is 87 cm. This is a welcome signal for millions of farmers preparing for the upcoming kharif season.
The forecast also gives a regional outlook. While most parts of the country are likely to receive good rainfall, some regions—like parts of Northwest India, the Northeast, and the southern peninsula—may receive slightly below-normal rain. However, the overall national picture remains positive. A more detailed update, including regional specifics, will be released by the IMD by the end of May.
What’s driving this hopeful forecast? A few global climate signals are at play. The Pacific Ocean is currently in a neutral phase—not too hot (El Niño) or too cold (La Niña). Interestingly, the atmosphere is showing signs similar to La Niña, a condition that often brings heavier rain to India. The Indian Ocean, too, is in a neutral state and is not expected to disturb the monsoon flow. Additionally, snow cover in the northern hemisphere, especially in Eurasia, has been lower than normal this year. This usually supports a stronger monsoon in India.
For farmers, this forecast comes with both opportunity and responsibility. Above-normal rainfall means timely sowing, better crop growth, and potentially higher yields. It can also reduce dependence on irrigation, particularly in rainfed areas. However, as always, it’s important to stay alert to local weather updates and be prepared for regional variations. With good rains and smart planning, this season can be a turning point for many farmers.
